Skip to main content

Forecasting the RMB Exchange Regime Using Genetic Programming Approach

  • Conference paper
Advances in Education and Management (ISAEBD 2011)

Part of the book series: Communications in Computer and Information Science ((CCIS,volume 211))

Included in the following conference series:

  • 2508 Accesses

Abstract

To resolve the slow convergence and local minimum problem of BP network, an exchange rate forecast method based on Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) is proposed.Data on economic variables is normalized, and then is put into the RBFNN in training. Corresponding parameters are got and then the exchange rate is predicted. Detailed simulation results and comparisons with Back-Propagation (BP) network show that, the operation speed of the method is faster and the forecast accuracy is higher than the traditional BP neural network can be achieved obviously. We then use genetic programming approach to achieve a better outcome compared with ANN.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. Jen, S.: Chinese RMB basket still a mystery, Global Economics Forum. Morgan Stanley, San Francisco (2005)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Shah, A., Zeileis, A., Patnaik, I.: What is the new Chinese currency regime? Unpublished memo the Department of Economics. Monash University (November 2005)

    Google Scholar 

  3. Frankel, J.: On the yuan: The choice between adjustment under a fixed exchange rate and adjustment under a flexible rate. In: Illing, G. (ed.) Understanding the Chinese Economy, CESifo Economictudies, Munich (2006) Also in NBER WP No. 11274

    Google Scholar 

  4. Eichengreen, B.: China’s exchange rate regime: The long and short of it, revision of paper for Columbia University’s conference on Chinese money and finance held in New York (February 2-3, 2006)

    Google Scholar 

  5. Yamazaki, K.: Inside the currency basket. Columbia University and Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking Corporation (December 2006)

    Google Scholar 

  6. Xu, J., Shao, H., Tang, G.: Empirical study on China basket currency system. Journal of Shanghai University of Economics and Finance 66, 72–76 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  7. Xu, S., Tang, Q.: An empirical research on China’s exchange intervention byreferring to currency basket. Studies of International Finance 9, 68–72 (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Frankel, J., Wei, S.J.: Assessing China’s exchange rate regime. NBER WP13100 (2007)

    Google Scholar 

  9. Zhou, J.: The Reference Basket for RMB: Composition, Stability and Commitment. World Economy 3, 16–22 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  10. Frankel, J., Froot, K.A.: Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen-dollar expectation: Evidence from survey data. Federal Reserve Board, International Financial Discussion Paper no. 292 (1986)

    Google Scholar 

  11. Frankel, J.: Using survey data to test standard proposition regarding exchange rate expectations. American Economic Review 77, 33–53 (1987)

    Google Scholar 

  12. Frankel, J.: New Estimation of China’s Exchange Rate Regime. NBER14700 (2009)

    Google Scholar 

  13. Bénassy-Quéré, A.: Opimal pegs for Asian currencies. In: CEPII 1997, October 14 (1997)

    Google Scholar 

  14. Bhandari, J.: Experiments with the optimal currency composite. Southern Economic Journal 51(3), 711–730 (1985)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  15. Camerer, C., Loewenstein, G., Prelec, D.: Neuroeconomics: How neuroscience can inform economics. Journal of Economic Literature XLIII, 9–64 (March 2005)

    Google Scholar 

  16. Levy Yeyati, E., Sturzenegger, F.: Classifying exchange rate regimes: Deeds vs. words. Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (2000), http://www.utdt.edu/~ely

  17. Marquez, J., Schindler, J.: Exchange rate effects on China’s trade: An interim report. International Finance Discussion Paper, No. 861, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, DC (2006)

    Google Scholar 

  18. Sun, F.C.: Advances in neural networks-ISNN 2008: Proceedings 5th International Conference of Symposium on Neural Networks (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  19. Thorbecke, W.: How would an appreciation of the RMB & other East Asian currencies affect China’s exports?, RIETI working paper (2008)

    Google Scholar 

  20. Silva, S.: GPProgramming, http://sourceforge.net/mailarchive/forum.php?forum_name=gplab-users

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Feng, X. (2011). Forecasting the RMB Exchange Regime Using Genetic Programming Approach. In: Zhou, M. (eds) Advances in Education and Management. ISAEBD 2011. Communications in Computer and Information Science, vol 211. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23062-2_74

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-23062-2_74

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-23061-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-23062-2

  • eBook Packages: Computer ScienceComputer Science (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics