Skip to main content

Genetic Programming for Financial Time Series Prediction

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science ((LNCS,volume 2038))

Abstract

This paper describes an application of genetic programming to forecasting financial markets that allowed the authors to rank first in a competition organized within the CEC2000 on “Dow Jones Prediction”. The approach is substantially driven by the rules of that competition, and is characterized by individuals being made up of multiple GP expressions and specific genetic operators.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.

Buying options

Chapter
USD   29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD   39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD   54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Learn about institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. F. Allen and R. Karjalainen. Using genetic algorithms to find technical trading rules. Journal of Financial Economics, 51(2):245–271, 1999.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. N.K. Chidambaran, C.H. Jevons Lee, and J.R. Trigueros. An adaptive evolutionary approach to option pricing via genetic programming. In J.R. Koza, W. Banzhaf, K. Chellapilla, K. Deb, M. Dorigo, D.B. Fogel, M.H. Garzon, D.E. Goldberg, H. Iba, and R. Riolo, editors, Genetic Programming 1998: Proceedings of the Third Annual Conference, pages 38–41, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA, 22-25 July 1998. Morgan Kaufmann.

    Google Scholar 

  3. R.E. Dorsey and R.S. Sexton. The use of parsimonious neural networks for forecasting financial time series. Journal of Computational Intelligence in Finance, 6(1):24–31, 1998.

    Google Scholar 

  4. C. Dunis, editor. Forecasting Financial Markets. Wiley, 1996.

    Google Scholar 

  5. S. Andreas et al. Time Series Prediction: Forecasting the future and understanding the past. Addison-Wesley, 1994.

    Google Scholar 

  6. C. Gourieroux. ARCH Models and Financial Applications. Springer Verlag, 1997.

    Google Scholar 

  7. H. Iba and N. Nikolaev. Genetic programming polynomial models of financial data series. In Proceedings of the 2000 Congress on Evolutionary Computation CEC00, pages 1459–1466, La Jolla Marriott Hotel La Jolla, California, USA, 6-9 July 2000. IEEE Press.

    Google Scholar 

  8. J.R. Koza. Genetic Programming. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992.

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  9. H. Muehlenbein and D. Schlierkamp-Voosen. Analysis of selection, mutation and recombination in genetic algorithms. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 899:142–--, 1995.

    Google Scholar 

  10. B.S. Mulloy, R.L. Riolo, and R.S. Savit. Dynamics of genetic programming and chaotic time series prediction. In John R. Koza, David E. Goldberg, David B. Fogel, and Rick L. Riolo, editors, Genetic Programming 1996: Proceedings of the First Annual Conference, pages 166–174, Stanford University, CA, USA, 28-31 July 1996. MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  11. M. Numata, K. Sugawara, S. Yamada, I. Yoshihara, and K. Abe. Time series prediction modeling by genetic programming without inheritance of model parameters. In M. Sugisaka, editor, Proceedings 4th International Symposium on Artificial Life and Robotics, B-Con Plaza, Beppu, Oita, Japan, 19–22 January 1999.

    Google Scholar 

  12. M. Numata, K. Sugawara, I. Yoshihara, and K. Abe. Time series prediction by genetic programming. In John R. Koza, editor, Late Breaking Papers at the Genetic Programming 1998 Conference, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA, 22-25 July 1998. Stanford University Bookstore.

    Google Scholar 

  13. M. Oussaidène, B. Chopard, O.V. Pictet, and M. Tomassini. Parallel genetic programming and its application to trading model induction. Parallel Computing, 23:1183–1198, 1997.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  14. I. Yoshihara, T. Aoyama, and M. Yasunaga. GP-based modeling method for time series prediction with parameter optimization and node alternation. In Proceedings of the 2000 Congress on Evolutionary Computation CEC00, pages 1475–1481, La Jolla Marriott Hotel La Jolla, California, USA, 16–19 July 2000. IEEE Press.

    Google Scholar 

  15. B. Zhang, P. Ohm, and H. Mühlenbein. Evolutionary induction of sparse neural trees. Evolutionary Computation, 5(2):213–236, 1997.

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  16. B.T. Zhang. Forecasting high frequency financial time series with evolutionary neural trees: The case of hang-sheng stock market. In Proceedings of ICAI’99, 1999.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2001 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg

About this paper

Cite this paper

Santini, M., Tettamanzi, A. (2001). Genetic Programming for Financial Time Series Prediction. In: Miller, J., Tomassini, M., Lanzi, P.L., Ryan, C., Tettamanzi, A.G.B., Langdon, W.B. (eds) Genetic Programming. EuroGP 2001. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 2038. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-45355-5_29

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-45355-5_29

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-41899-3

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-540-45355-0

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics