Summary
In this chapter we present the application of a genetic programming (GP) algorithm to the problem of bankruptcy prediction. To carry out the research we have used a database that includes extensive information (not only economic) from the companies. In order to handle the different data types we have used Strongly Typed GP and variable reduction. Also, bloat control has been implemented to obtain comprehensible classification models. For comparison purposes we have solved the same problem using a support vector machine (SVM). GP has achieved very satisfactory results, improving those obtained with the SVM.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Alfaro-Cid E, Sharman K, Esparcia-Alcázar A (2007) A genetic programming approach for bankruptcy prediction using a highly unbalanced database. In: et al MG (ed) Proceedings of the First European Workshop on Evolutionary Computation in Finance and Economics (EvoFIN'07), Springer-Verlag, Valencia, Spain, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 4448, pp 169-178
Altman E I (1968) Financial ratios, discriminant analysis and the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Journal of Finance 23(4):589-609
Brabazon A, Keenan PB (2004) A hybrid genetic model for the prediction of corporate failure. Computational Management Science 1:293-310
Brabazon A, O'Neill M (2006) Biologically inspired algorithms for finantial modelling. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Germany
Chang CC, Lin CJ (2001) LIBSVM: a library for support vector machines. Software available at http://www.csie.ntu.edu.tw/cjlin/libsvm
Dimitras AI, Zanakis SH, Zopounidis C (1996) A survey of business failures with an emphasis on predictions, methods and industrial applications. European Journal of Operational Research 90:487-513
Eggermont J, Eiben AE, van Hemert JI (1999) A comparison of genetic programming variants for data classification. In: Hand DJ, Kok JN, Berthold MR (eds) Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis (IDA'99), Springer-Verlag, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 1642, pp 281-290
Fernández de Vega F, Rubio del Solar M, Fernández Martínez A (2005) Implementaci ón de algoritmos evolutivos para un entorno de distribuci ón epid émica. In: Arenas MG, Herrera F, Lozano M, Merelo JJ, Romero G, SánchezAM (eds) Actas del IV Congreso Espa ñol de Metaheurísticas, Algoritmos Evolutivos y Bioinspirados (MAEB'05), Granada, Spain, pp 57-62
Japkowicz N, Stephen S (2002) The class imbalance problem: a systematic study. Intelligent Data Analysis 6(5):429-449
Kim MJ, Han I (2003) The discovery of experts' decision rules from qualitative bankruptcy data using genetic algorithms. Experts Systems with Applications 25:637-646
Kishore JK, Patnaik LM, Mani V, Agrawal VK (2001) Genetic programming based pattern classification with feature space partitioning. Information Sciences 131:65-86
Koza JR (1992) Genetic Programming: On the programming of computers by means of natural selection. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA
Lensberg T, Eilifsen A, McKee TE (2006) Bankruptcy theory development and classification via genetic programming. European Journal of Operational Research 169:677-697
Leshno M, Spector Y (1996) Neural network prediction analysis: The bankruptcy case. Neurocomputing 10:125-147
Luke S (2000) Issues in scaling genetic programming: Breeding strategies, tree generation, and code bloat. PhD thesis, University of Maryland, Maryland, USA
Luke S, Panait L (2002) Lexicographic parsimony pressure. In: et al WBL (ed) Proceedings of the Genetic and Evolutionary Computation Conference (GECCO'02), New York, USA, pp 829-836
Luke S, Panait L (2006) A comparison of bloat control methods for genetic programming. Evolutionary Computation 14(3):309-344
McKee TE, Lensberg T (2002) Genetic programming and rough sets: A hybrid approach to bankruptcy classification. European Journal of Operational Research 138:436-451
Montana DJ (1995) Strongly typed genetic programming. Evolutionary Computation 3(2):199-230
Ohlson J (1980) Financial ratios and the probabilistic prediction of bankruptcy. Journal of Accounting Research 18(1):109-131
Poli R (2003) A simple but theoretically-motivated method to control bloat in genetic programming. In: Ryan C, Soule T, Keijzer M, Tsang EPK, Poli R, CostaE (eds) Proceedings of the Sixth European Coference on Genetic Programming EuroGP'03, Springer-Verlag, Essex, UK, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 2610, pp 204-217
Salcedo-Sanz S, Fernández-Villacañas JL, Segovia-Vargas MJ, Bousoño-Calzón C (2005) Genetic programming for the prediction of insolvency in non-life insurance companies. Computers and Operations Research 32:749-765
Shin KS, Lee YL (2002) A genetic algorithm application in bankruptcy prediction modeling. Experts Systems with Applications 23:321-328
Tsakonas A, Dounias G, Doumpos M, Zopounidis C (2006) Bankruptcy prediction with neural logic networks by means of grammar-guided genetic programming. Experts Systems with Applications 30:449-461
Vapnik V (1998) Statistical Learning Theory. Wiley-Interscience, New York
Varetto F (1998) Genetic algorithm applications in the field of insolvency risk. Journal of banking and Finance 22:1421-1439
Vieira AS, Ribeiro B, Mukkamala S, Neves JC, Sung AH (2004) On the performance of learning machines for bankruptcy detection. In: Hand DJ, Kok JN, Berthold MR (eds) Proceedings of the IEEE Conference on Computational Cybernetics, Vienna, Austria, pp 323-327
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Alfaro-Cid, E., Cuesta-Cañada, A., Sharman, K., Esparcia-Alcázar, A.I. (2008). Strong Typing, Variable Reduction and Bloat Control for Solving the Bankruptcy Prediction Problem Using Genetic Programming. In: Brabazon, A., O’Neill, M. (eds) Natural Computing in Computational Finance. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 100. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77477-8_9
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-77477-8_9
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-77476-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-77477-8
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)