On the basin-scale detection and attribution of human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation and streamflow
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- @Article{Mondal:2012:WRR,
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author = "Arpita Mondal and P. P. Mujumdar",
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title = "On the basin-scale detection and attribution of
human-induced climate change in monsoon precipitation
and streamflow",
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journal = "Water Resources Research",
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year = "2012",
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volume = "48",
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number = "10",
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pages = "W10520",
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month = oct,
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publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
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keywords = "genetic algorithms, genetic programming",
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ISSN = "1944-7973",
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bibsource = "OAI-PMH server at eprints.iisc.ernet.in",
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oai = "oai:eprints.iisc.ernet.in:45379",
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type = "Peer Reviewed",
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URL = "http://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/45379/",
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URL = "http://eprints.iisc.ernet.in/45379/1/wat_res_res_48_w10520_2012.pdf",
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DOI = "doi:10.1029/2011WR011468",
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size = "18 pages",
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abstract = "Detecting and quantifying the presence of
human-induced climate change in regional hydrology is
important for studying the impacts of such changes on
the water resources systems as well as for reliable
future projections and policy making for adaptation. In
this article a formal fingerprint-based detection and
attribution analysis has been attempted to study the
changes in the observed monsoon precipitation and
streamflow in the rain-fed Mahanadi River Basin in
India, considering the variability across different
climate models. This is achieved through the use of
observations, several climate model runs, a principal
component analysis and regression based statistical
downscaling technique, and a Genetic Programming based
rainfall-runoff model. It is found that the decreases
in observed hydrological variables across the second
half of the 20th century lie outside the range that is
expected from natural internal variability of climate
alone at 95percent statistical confidence level, for
most of the climate models considered. For several
climate models, such changes are consistent with those
expected from anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse
gases. However, unequivocal attribution to
human-induced climate change cannot be claimed across
all the climate models and uncertainties in our
detection procedure, arising out of various sources
including the use of models, cannot be ruled out.
Changes in solar irradiance and volcanic activities are
considered as other plausible natural external causes
of climate change. Time evolution of the anthropogenic
climate change ``signal'' in the hydrological
observations, above the natural internal climate
variability ``noise'' shows that the detection of the
signal is achieved earlier in stream-flow as compared
to precipitation for most of the climate models,
suggesting larger impacts of human-induced climate
change on streamflow than precipitation at the river
basin scale.",
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notes = "GPTIPS",
- }
Genetic Programming entries for
Arpita Mondal
Pradeep P Mujumdar
Citations