Combining Diffusion Models and Macroeconomic Indicators with a Modified Genetic Programming Method: Implementation in Forecasting the Number of Mobile Telecommunications Subscribers in OECD Countries
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- @Article{journals/advor/SalpasaranisSK14,
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author = "Konstantinos Salpasaranis and Vasilios Stylianakis and
Stavros Kotsopoulos",
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title = "Combining Diffusion Models and Macroeconomic
Indicators with a Modified Genetic Programming Method:
Implementation in Forecasting the Number of Mobile
Telecommunications Subscribers in {OECD} Countries",
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journal = "Advances Operations Research",
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year = "2014",
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volume = "2014",
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pages = "Article ID 568478",
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keywords = "genetic algorithms, genetic programming",
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bibdate = "2014-07-08",
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bibsource = "DBLP,
http://dblp.uni-trier.de/db/journals/advor/advor2014.html#SalpasaranisSK14",
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URL = "http://downloads.hindawi.com/journals/aor/2014/568478.pdf",
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DOI = "doi:10.1155/2014/568478",
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size = "20 pages",
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abstract = "This paper proposes a modified Genetic Programming
method for forecasting the mobile telecommunications
subscribers' population. The method constitutes an
expansion of the hybrid Genetic Programming (hGP)
method improved by the introduction of diffusion models
for technological forecasting purposes in the initial
population, such as the Logistic, Gompertz, and Bass,
as well as the Bi-Logistic and LogInLog. In addition,
the aforementioned functions and models expand the
function set of hGP. The application of the method in
combination with macroeconomic indicators such as Gross
Domestic Product per Capita (GDPpC) and Consumer Prices
Index (CPI) leads to the creation of forecasting models
and scenarios for medium- and long-term level of
predictability. The forecasting module of the program
has also been improved with the multi-levelled use of
the statistical indices as fitness functions and model
selection indices. The implementation of the
modified-hGP in the datasets of mobile subscribers in
the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) countries shows very satisfactory
forecasting performance.",
- }
Genetic Programming entries for
Konstantinos Salpasaranis
Vasilis Stilianakis
Stavros Kotsopoulos
Citations