A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea
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- @Article{10.1371/journal.pone.0158230,
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author = "Danny J. Papworth and Simone Marini and
Alessandra Conversi",
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title = "A Novel, Unbiased Analysis Approach for Investigating
Population Dynamics: A Case Study on Calanus
finmarchicus and Its Decline in the North Sea",
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journal = "PLOS ONE",
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year = "2016",
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volume = "11",
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number = "7",
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pages = "1--26",
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month = "1 " # jul,
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keywords = "genetic algorithms, genetic programming, crustacean",
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ISSN = "1932-6203",
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publisher = "Public Library of Science",
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URL = "https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0158230",
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URL = "http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0158230&type=printable",
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DOI = "doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0158230",
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size = "26 pages",
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abstract = "Marine populations are controlled by a series of
drivers, pertaining to both the physical environment
and the biological environment (trophic predator-prey
interactions). There is heated debate over drivers,
especially when trying to understand the causes of
major ecosystem events termed regime shifts. In this
work, we have researched and developed a novel
methodology based on Genetic Programming (GP) for
distinguishing which drivers can influence species
abundance. This methodology benefits of having no a
priori assumptions either on the ecological parameters
used or on the underlying mathematical relationships
among them. We have validated this methodology applying
it to the North Sea pelagic ecosystem. We use the
target species Calanus finmarchicus, a key copepod in
temperate and subarctic ecosystems, along with 86
biological, hydrographical and climatic time series,
ranging from local water nutrients and fish predation,
to large scale climate pressure patterns. The chosen
study area is the central North Sea, from 1972 to 2011,
during which period there was an ecological regime
shift. The GP based analysis identified 3 likely
drivers of C. finmarchicus abundance, which highlights
the importance of considering both physical and trophic
drivers: temperature, North Sea circulation (net flow
into the North Atlantic), and predation (herring). No
large scale climate patterns were selected, suggesting
that when there is availability of both data types,
local drivers are more important. The results produced
by the GP based procedure are consistent with the
literature published to date, and validate the use of
GP for interpreting species dynamics. We propose that
this methodology holds promises for the highly
non-linear field of ecology.",
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notes = "Questions and Answers on the GP-based procedure Posted
by AleConversi on 31 Aug 2016 at 06:00 GMT
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/comment?id=10.1371/annotation/7d9d2fda-1917-4f3c-9277-fd101c527349",
- }
Genetic Programming entries for
Danny J Papworth
Simone Marini
Alessandra Conversi
Citations