A Genetic Programming Approach for Economic Forecasting with Survey Expectations

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@Article{Claveria:2022:AS,

• author = "Oscar Claveria and Enric Monte and Salvador Torra",
• title = "A Genetic Programming Approach for Economic Forecasting with Survey Expectations",
• journal = "Applied Sciences",
• year = "2022",
• volume = "12",
• number = "13",
• pages = "article no 6661",
• keywords = "genetic algorithms, genetic programming, forecasting, economic growth, expectations, business and consumer surveys, symbolic regression, evolutionary algorithms",
• ISSN = "2076-3417",
• URL = "https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/12/13/6661",
• DOI = "doi:10.3390/app12136661",
• size = "19 pages",
• abstract = "We apply a soft computing method to generate country-specific economic sentiment indicators that provide estimates of year-on-year GDP growth rates for 19 European economies. First, genetic programming is used to evolve business and consumer economic expectations to derive sentiment indicators for each country. To assess the performance of the proposed indicators, we first design a now-casting experiment in which we recursively generate estimates of GDP at the end of each quarter, using the latest business and consumer survey data available. Second, we design a forecasting exercise in which we iteratively re-compute the sentiment indicators in each out-of-sample period. When evaluating the accuracy of the predictions obtained for different forecast horizons, we find that the evolved sentiment indicators outperform the time-series models used as a benchmark. These results show the potential of the proposed approach for prediction purposes.",
• notes = "https://www.mdpi.com/journal/applsci",

}

Genetic Programming entries for Oscar Claveria Gonzalez Enric Monte Moreno Salvador Torra

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