Forecasting monthly urban water demand using Extended Kalman Filter and Genetic Programming

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@Article{Nasseri20117387,

• author = "Mohsen Nasseri and Ali Moeini and Massoud Tabesh",
• title = "Forecasting monthly urban water demand using Extended Kalman Filter and Genetic Programming",
• journal = "Expert Systems with Applications",
• volume = "38",
• number = "6",
• pages = "7387--7395",
• year = "2011",
• ISSN = "0957-4174",
• DOI = "doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2010.12.087",
• URL = "http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V03-51PRY5V-Y/2/16bb7552eb2a17932d741aa38194b098",
• keywords = "genetic algorithms, genetic programming, Forecasting, Monthly water demand, Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), Data assimilation",
• abstract = "In this paper, a hybrid model which combines Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) and Genetic Programming (GP) for forecasting of water demand in Tehran is developed. The initial goal of the current work is forecasting monthly water demand using GP for achieving an explicit optimum formula. In the proposed model, the EKF is applied to infer latent variables in order to make a forecasting based on GP results of water demand. The available dataset includes monthly water consumption of Tehran, the capital of Iran, from 1992 to 2002. Five best formulae based on GP results on this dataset are presented. In these models, the first five to three lags of observed water demand are used as probable and independent inputs. For each model, sensitivity of the results for each input is measured mathematically. A model with the most compatibility of the computed versus the observed water demand is used for filtering based on EKF method. Results of GP and hybrid models of EKFGP demonstrate the visible effect of observation precision on water demand prediction. These results can help decision makers of water resources to reduce their risks of on line water demand forecasting and optimal operation of urban water systems.",

}

Genetic Programming entries for Mohsen Nasseri Ali Moeini Massoud Tabesh

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