Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach
Created by W.Langdon from
gp-bibliography.bib Revision:1.8081
- @TechReport{RePEc:xrp:wpaper:xreap2018-4,
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author = "Oscar Claveria and Enric Monte and Salvador Torra",
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title = "Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via
genetic programming: A two-step approach",
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institution = "Research Institute of Applied Economics, Universitat
de Barcelona",
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year = "2018",
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type = "Working Paper",
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number = "2018/01",
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address = "Av. Diagonal, 690, 08034 Barcelona, Spain",
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keywords = "genetic algorithms, genetic programming, Evolutionary
algorithms, Symbolic regression, Business and consumer
surveys, Expectations, Forecasting",
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URL = "http://www.ub.edu/irea/working_papers/2018/201801.pdf",
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URL = "https://ideas.repec.org/p/xrp/wpaper/xreap2018-4.html",
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size = "24 pages",
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abstract = "The main objective of this study is to present a
two-step approach to generate estimates of economic
growth based on agents expectations from tendency
surveys. First, we design a genetic programming
experiment to derive mathematical functional forms that
approximate the target variable by combining survey
data on expectations about different economic
variables. We use evolutionary algorithms to estimate a
symbolic regression that links survey-based
expectations to a quantitative variable used as a
yardstick (economic growth). In a second step, this set
of empirically-generated proxies of economic growth are
linearly combined to track the evolution of GDP. To
evaluate the forecasting performance of the generated
estimates of GDP, we use them to assess the impact of
the 2008 financial crisis on the accuracy of agents'
expectations about the evolution of the economic
activity in 28 countries of the OECD. While in most
economies we find an improvement in the capacity of
agents' to anticipate the evolution of GDP after the
crisis, predictive accuracy worsens in relation to the
period prior to the crisis. The most accurate GDP
forecasts are obtained for Sweden, Austria and
Finland.",
-
notes = "XREAP2018-4",
- }
Genetic Programming entries for
Oscar Claveria Gonzalez
Enric Monte Moreno
Salvador Torra
Citations