abstract = "Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in
individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to
provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic
events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To
increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various
approaches have been proposed which combine multiple
predictors to produce superior results compared to
single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are
presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D
subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were
used in two adaptive data-driven models (an
autoregressive model with output correction, cARX, and
a recurrent neural network, RNN). Data fusion
techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential
Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii)
Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the
complimentary performances of the prediction models.
The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to
issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events.
The fusion schemes showed improved performance with
lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and
higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median
daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25percent, and 100percent
correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types.
The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events
were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for
hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and
RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the
proposed fusion schemes represents a significant
improvement.",
notes = "Diabetes Technology Research Group, University of
Bern, Switzerland